Grid and gas impact by campus · Preview edition

Data Center Index

Every data center campus of 100 MW or more in the US and Canada, live since 2021 or in the pipeline, with our estimate of what it pulls from the power grid and the natural gas system.

Pass 1, October 28, 2026; updated November 3, 2026 with regulatory filings, utility reports and legislative news. 87 campuses tracked, plus 3 on the watch list. Research and estimates by Discovery Energy.

Campuses tracked87100 MW or more, US and Canada
Announced205 GWAt full buildout
Expected by 203055 GWWeighted by build stage
Added gas burn5.1 Bcf/dAverage day, grid and on-site

Where data center load is landing

Shading shows the data center load we expect to be running in each state or province by 2030. Select one to see its campuses.

Expected GW by 2030 None tracked Under 0.5 0.5 to 2 2 to 6 6 or more

Every campus, rated 1 to 4 bolts

Expected MW is our estimate of the load running by 2030, after phasing large campuses and weighting each one by how far along it is. Select a column heading to sort, or open a profile for every campus, state or grid region.

Preview data, updated November 3, 2026. Most rows come from public trackers and still need primary-source checks. Confidence runs from A (verified against a primary source) to D (conflicting or estimated figures). Rows marked Update changed in the November source sweep; rows marked Check carry a report we have not yet confirmed.

Status
Rating
Find

Operating or under construction Announced, approved or proposed

Campus Location Grid region Status Announced MW Expected MW 2030 Power supply Gas MMcf/d Impact Conf.
How we estimate

Watch list: reported, not yet verified

New campuses found in the November 2026 source sweep. They are not counted in the totals, map or ratings until we confirm size, status and power supply against a primary source.

CandidateLocationLikely grid regionReported sizePower supplyLatestSource
Project RomanGoogle (via Intersect Power)Near Hereford (Deaf Smith County), TXAbout 3,700 acres for the energy portionSPP (to confirm)Not disclosedSelf-supplied: gas plant (TCEQ air permit 184403) plus wind and solar; gas via NGPL Amarillo Expansion, 550,000 Dth/dUnverifiedAir permit comments closed Jul 24, 2026; pipeline filed at FERC Sept 17, 2026 (CP26-581); about 90 permanent jobs; completion before 2030NewsChannel 10 · NGI
Meitner Energy CenterGoogle + Intersect PowerGray and Roberts Counties, TXSPP (to confirm)Not disclosed; over 1 GW of co-located wind, solar and storageRenewables, on-site gas for firmingUnverifiedUnder construction, June 2026PV Tech
Google West MemphisGoogleWest Memphis, AR1,100 acres; up to five buildings reportedMISO (Entergy Arkansas)Not disclosed; $4B first phaseGrid, with 600 MW solar + 350 MW battery (Cypress Solar) and added batteriesUnverifiedAnnounced Oct 2, 2025; agreement expanded Q3 2026; operation expected around 2027POWER · Entergy Q3

Added to the index after checks (Nov 3, 2026): Taylor Technology Campus (DC-087), Digital Realty Kokomo (DC-085), TerraWatt Alton (DC-086). Dropped: Synapse's Olds, Alberta campus. The Alberta Utilities Commission rejected its 1.4 GW gas plant in August 2026, and the developer says the project will not proceed as proposed (The Hub).

What the bolts mean

Each campus gets a grid score and a gas score. The rating is the higher of the two. It measures strain on the system, not who pays.

RatingGrid-served load by 2030Local design-day gas drawTypical meaning

How the 87 campuses rate

23 four-bolt29 three-bolt32 two-bolt3 one-boltDrivers: grid 71, gas 10, grid + gas 6

The preview leans to 3 and 4 bolts because it starts with gigawatt-scale projects. The 100 MW to 1 GW tier fills the lower ratings in later passes.

Load by grid region

Bill effects follow the grid region and utility a campus connects to, not the city it sits in. Campuses with on-site gas generation shift the impact from electric bills to the gas system.

Grid-servedOn-site (behind the meter)

RegionCampusesAnnounced MWExpected MW by 2030Gas MMcf/dShare of peak
Total87204,59354,9415,097

Not yet covered: NYISO, ISO-NE, CAISO, Ontario (IESO), Québec (Hydro-Québec). Share of peak uses PJM 160,000 MW (2025 summer), ERCOT 91,089 MW (record, July 22, 2026), SPP 56,000 MW (2025) and AESO 12,800 MW.

Announced is not built

Public pipelines overstate what will be running. Utilities now ask developers to prove a project is real before they connect it, and the queues shrink when they do.

PJM 2026 load forecast60 → 34 GW

2030 data center load submitted by utilities, versus what PJM accepted.

Modo Energy
PJM market monitor42%

Share of forecast data center load growth already cancelled or delayed.

TechRadar
Bernstein35%

Share of the US data center pipeline judged credible.

Financial Times
AEP Ohio30 → 13 GW

Large-load queue once its data center tariff required financial commitments.

ai2.work

National demand

2023 US use176 TWh

About 4.4% of US electricity. 2028 projections run from 325 to 580 TWh (6.7% to 12%).

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
New capacity by 203062 GW

Lower 48, roughly 40% planned behind the meter, adding about 1.3 Bcf/d of on-site gas demand.

Enverus, July 2026
Added gas demand by 20303–10 Bcf/d

Analyst range. S&P Global about 3 to 6; PwC base case about 5.8. A 1 GW gas-fed campus burns about 140 MMcf/d.

S&P Global, PwC, Enverus

PJM capacity prices

The market monitor attributes $6.3 billion, or 38%, of the 2028/29 auction to data centers. That works out to about $45,078 per MW of peak load contribution per year, or $7.35/MWh for a large user at a 70% load factor.

Base Residual Auction clearing price, $/MW-day

2026/27 through 2028/29 cleared at the price cap. Sources: Calpine, Citizens Utility Board, Environ Energy.

Large-load tariffs: who pays

About 24 states had approved large-load tariffs by mid-2026. They set minimum bills and long terms so other customers aren't left with stranded costs.

UtilityKey terms
Dominion Virginia GS-525 MW+; from Jan 2027; 14-year terms; minimum demand about 85% (T&D) and 60% (generation)
AEP OhioMinimum billing about 85% of contracted demand, plus collateral
Georgia PowerRules apply from 100 MW
Entergy LouisianaFive-year minimum contracts
Evergy MissouriLarge-load service from 75 MW
El Paso Electric20-year minimum contract proposed
Portland General Sch. 9620 MW+; 90% minimum demand; 10 to 30 year terms

Latest regulatory and legislative actions

Who connects, who pays and how fast: the rules are changing quickly. These are the actions that most affect grid and gas impact as of November 3, 2026.

DateActionWhy it matters
Jun 18, 2026FERC orders six grid operators to file large-load rulesCovers study timelines, cost shifts, co-location and service for flexible loads. Duane Morris
Jul 14, 2026New York pauses state permits for data centers of 50 MW or moreExecutive Order 62, pending a statewide environmental review. Beveridge & Diamond
Jul 31, 2026PJM files a backstop auction for a 6.8 GW shortfallPrice cap $555/MW-day; results due Dec 2, 2026. PJM sees up to 70 GW of large-load growth by 2038. Utility Dive
Aug 3, 2026Texas governor orders an audit of every data center in the queueProjects that don't disclose ownership, finances, water and community impacts can be denied connection. ERCOT paused energization of new 75 MW+ data center and crypto loads; its Sept 3 Batch Zero classifications put 66.4 GW in the base case, about 128 GW for study and 302 GW excluded. Audit reports are due Dec 10. ERCOT · POWER
Aug 5, 2026Virginia regulators: data centers pay for lines built only for themDominion has 200+ transmission projects serving 600+ data centers. WJLA
May 27, 2026Ohio pauses new data center sales-tax exemptionsThe 2025 cost of the exemption was underestimated by more than $1.4 billion. WOSU
Sept 2026House passes the Ratepayer Protection Act, 417–3Asks states to consider making large loads pay full cost; does not require it. Stalled in the Senate. ExecutiveGov
Dec 2026Louisiana PSC decides on seven more gas plants for Meta HyperionDocket 32728; ten plants in total. UCS
2025–202642 of 486 state data center bills became law, in 23 statesLarge-load cost rules, water, tax incentives, siting and transparency. Quorum

Behind-the-meter gas

Cleanview counts 59 data centers planning on-site generation, about 90 GW in total, with only about 2 GW online by mid-2026. Notable builds include xAI's 1,498 MW of turbines across Colossus 1 and 2, 360 MW of turbines at Stargate Abilene, the 4.5 GW Homer City plant on a former coal site, and Entergy gas plants for Meta Hyperion: three approved (about 2.3 GW) and seven more proposed, about 7.5 GW in all. Project Jupiter in New Mexico switched from turbines to fuel cells after the state rejected its gas pipeline. ERCOT's large-load queue reached about 475 GW in June 2026, 90% of it data centers, more than five times the Texas grid's record 91 GW peak.

Canada

Alberta has about 19,565 MW of data centre load requested against a record peak near 12,800 MW. Its 1,200 MW Phase 1 allocation is full, and new rules favor bring-your-own generation. Wonder Valley is announced at 7.5 GW, and Meta has announced a C$13 billion campus in Sturgeon County. Québec requires government approval for loads of 5 MW or more.

How we estimate impact

A summary. The full methodology has every assumption, the rating thresholds and calibration.

Estimates use public sources only. Every figure below is a model output, not a reported number.

  1. Normalize size

    Published MW can be IT load, utility service or generation nameplate. IT load × 1.2 PUE; on-site nameplate × 0.8.

  2. Phase to 2030

    Up to 1 GW counts 100%; 1 to 3 GW counts 60%; above 3 GW counts 30%.

  3. Weight by build stage

    Operating 100%, expanding 90%, under construction 80%, approved 65%, announced 35%, proposed 15%.

  4. Convert to energy

    Average load at a 75% load factor. Annual GWh = average MW × 8.76.

  5. Split grid from on-site

    On-site gas and fuel-cell campuses count fully on-site; hybrids split by on-site nameplate.

  6. Estimate gas burn

    On-site at 9,500 Btu/kWh; grid share uses the region's gas share of new supply at 7,500 Btu/kWh. 1 GW at 6,000 Btu/kWh ≈ 139 MMcf/d.

Calibration checks

MeasureIndex (Pass 1)BenchmarkSource
Expected data center load by 203054.9 GW62 GW new, 2026–2030 (Lower 48)Enverus, July 2026
PJM expected load by 203016.4 GW35.1 GW accepted, 2026–2031PJM 2026 load forecast
Added gas burn by 20305.1 Bcf/d3–10 Bcf/dS&P Global, PwC and others

The preview sits inside these ranges while still missing the 100 MW to 1 GW tier, so totals will rise as later passes add campuses.

Questions about the index

What is the Data Center Index?

A list of every data center campus of 100 MW or more in the US and Canada that entered service since 2021 or is under construction, approved, announced or proposed, with an estimate of the load each will put on the power grid and the natural gas system by 2030.

Why is expected load so much lower than announced capacity?

Announced figures are often full-campus potential over a decade or more, and many projects never get built. We phase large campuses to what can plausibly run by 2030, then weight each by its build stage. That turns 205 GW announced into about 55 GW expected.

How do data centers raise electric bills?

Through capacity prices, new transmission and new generation. In PJM, the market monitor attributes 38% of the 2028/29 capacity auction to data centers. Large-load tariffs decide how much of that reaches other customers.

How do data centers affect natural gas supply?

Either directly, through on-site turbines, engines or fuel cells, or indirectly, through gas-fired plants built to serve the grid. We estimate about 5.1 Bcf/d of added gas burn on an average day across tracked campuses.

What does the bolt rating mean?

One to four bolts for the strain a campus puts on the grid or gas system, from local (served by an existing substation) to gigawatt-class (reshapes regional planning). Solid bolts are operating or under construction; outlined bolts are announced or proposed.

How current and verified is the data?

Pass 1 was compiled October 28, 2026 from public trackers, news and filings, and updated November 3, 2026 with regulatory filings, utility reports and legislative news. Each row carries a confidence grade from A to D, and changed rows are marked. New campuses stay on the watch list until verified. Primary-source checks start with the D-grade rows.

Can I download the data?

Yes. Use the Download CSV button under the campus table. It exports the rows that match your current filters.

Sources

Key sources below. The source log lists every reference behind the index, by campus, with a change log and verification log.

    Next up: the 100 MW to 1 GW tier.

    Pass 2 adds mid-size campuses in PJM, starting with Northern Virginia, Columbus, Chicago and PPL territory. Later passes cover ERCOT and SPP, the Southeast, the West and Canada.